ANALYSIS OF INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN POVERTY, UNEMPLOYMENT AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN WEST SUMATERA PROVINCE: PANEL ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH

http://doi.org/10.22216/jbe.v5i1.4901


Hasdi Aimon(1*), Anggi Putri Kurniadi(2), Muhammad Kanzu Satrio(3)

(1) Universitas Negeri Padang
(2) Universitas Negeri Padang
(3) Universitas Negeri Padang
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


This study investigates the determinants of inclusive growth in poverty, unemployment and income inequality in West Sumatera Province. This study uses time series from 2011-2017, while the cross section is 12 districts and 7 cities, which were analyzed by the panel error correction model. There are several important findings in this study. First, the results of the analysis for the long term are that inclusive growth in poverty is positively and significantly affected by health, education, investment and government spending. Meanwhile, inclusive growth in unemployment and income inequality is negatively and significantly affected by health, education, investment and government spending. Second, the results of the analysis for the short term are investment and government spending disrupts the balance of inclusive growth in poverty. Meanwhile, education and investment disrupt the balance of inclusive growth in unemployment and income inequality. Third, there is a long term balance on inclusive growth in poverty, unemployment and income inequality. Therefore, it is highly recommended for districts/cities governments in West Sumatera Province to intervene in the independent variables that have significant and disturbing effects in the short term, so that conditions of inclusive growth in poverty, unemployment and income inequality can be achieved optimally.


Studi ini menyelidiki faktor-faktor penentu pertumbuhan inklusif pada kemiskinan, pengangguran dan ketimpangan pendapatan di Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Penelitian ini menggunakan deret waktu dari 2011-2017, sedangkan cross section adalah 12 kabupaten dan 7 kota, yang dianalisis dengan metode panel error correction model. Terdapat beberapa temuan penting dalam penelitian ini. Pertama, hasil analisis untuk jangka panjang adalah  pertumbuhan inklusif pada kemiskinan dipengaruhi secara positif dan signifikan olehkesehatan, pendidikan, investasi dan pengeluaran pemerintah.Sedangkan, pertumbuhan inklusif pada pengangguran dan ketimpangan pendapatan dipengaruhi secara negatif dan signifikan oleh kesehatan, pendidikan, investasi dan pengeluaran pemerintah.Kedua, hasil analisis untuk jangka pendek adalah investasi dan pengeluaran pemerintah menganggu keseimbangan pertumbuhan inklusif pada kemiskinan. Sedangkan, pendidikan dan investasi menganggu keseimbangan pertumbuhan inklusif pada penganguran dan ketimpangan pendapatan. Ketiga, terdapat keseimbangan dalam jangka panjang terhadap pertumbuhan inklusif pada kemiskinan, pengangguran dan ketimpangan pendapatan meskipun dalam jangka pendek tidak mengalami keseimbangan.Oleh karena itu, sangat dianjurkan bagi pemerintah kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Sumatera Barat untuk melakukan intervensi pada variabel independent yang berpengaruh signifikan dan menganggu dalam jangka pendek, sehingga kondisi pertumbuhan inklusif pada kemiskinan, pengangguran dan ketimpangan pendapatan dapat tercapai dengan optimal.


Keywords


inclusive growth in poverty; inclusive growth in unemployment; inclusive growth in income inequality; panel error correction model approach

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